Every coach does this math in his head. The Emulator just does it the same way every time, for every weight, in a second.
Step 1: A Strength Score for Each Wrestler
Each wrestler gets a strength score from his season record:
Strength = Wins × (Win %)1.5 + Experience bonus
- Wins times win percentage. This rewards both volume and quality. A 32 and 10 wrestler has proven more than a 16 and 5 wrestler, even though their win percentages are similar.
- The 1.5 power. This bends the curve so losing records drop off faster. A .500 wrestler is not half as good as an undefeated one; in a dual he is usually much further behind.
- Experience bonus. Up to 5 extra points, reaching the full bonus at 25 matches. A kid with a big sample of matches gets a little more trust than a kid with five.
Step 2: Placement Multipliers
Season records do not tell the whole story. A wrestler who placed at a tough tournament has beaten good wrestlers when it mattered. So instead of adding a few points, a placement multiplies the entire strength score:
| Placement | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| None | 1.00× |
| DP: District placer | 1.45× |
| RP: Regional placer | 1.65× |
| SP: State placer | 1.90× |
| SC: State champion | 2.15× |
Only the highest placement counts. A state placer who also placed at districts uses 1.90.
Step 3: The Matchup Split
The two strength scores are compared to get each wrestler's share, which always adds up to 100 percent. If one wrestler has a strength of 30 and the other has 10, the split is 75 to 25.
Step 4: From Split to Result
| Favored wrestler's share | Projected result | Team points |
|---|---|---|
| Within 5 points of even (for example 52 to 48) | Toss-up | 1.5 each |
| Below 57% | Decision | 3 |
| 57% to 66% | Major decision | 4 |
| 67% to 77% | Technical fall | 5 |
| 78% and up | Fall (pin) | 6 |
Toss-ups split the points so a coin flip bout does not tilt the projected total either way. A forfeit is always 6 points.
Boom or Bust
Some wrestlers do not do decisions. I had a wrestler go 21 and 22 and still place at districts, and almost all of his losses were by fall. His record says average. His matches say something else: he pins or he gets pinned.
When either wrestler in a bout is flagged Boom or Bust:
- If the favored wrestler has 55% or more, the bout is projected as a pin for 6 points.
- If it is closer than that, it is flagged as a pin risk toss-up, because it can end fast either way.
Result Tendencies
A record says how often a wrestler wins. Tendencies say how he wins and loses. When you fill in the Tendencies box, the Emulator uses it to adjust the projected result. It never changes who is projected to win.
- Take the favored wrestler's win breakdown and the underdog's loss breakdown, each as percentages of the bouts you listed.
- Average the two. If only one side has numbers, use that side alone.
- Turn it into expected points: fall 6, tech fall 5, major 4, decision 3.
- Average that with the points from the record-based projection (Step 4 above).
- Round to a result: 5.5 and up is a fall, 4.5 and up a tech fall, 3.5 and up a major, otherwise a decision.
Example. The record model says Major Decision (4 points). The favorite won 25 of his 30 by fall, and the underdog lost 9 of 12 by fall. Their tendencies work out to about 5.6 points. Averaged with 4, that is about 4.8, so the projection moves to a Tech Fall.
Every bout card that used tendencies says so and shows the numbers, for example: "Tendencies moved this from Major Decision to Tech Fall. Record 4 pts, tendencies 5.6, blended 4.8." Tendencies are skipped in a few cases:
- Toss-ups stay toss-ups.
- Boom or Bust takes priority when either wrestler has it.
- A breakdown that adds up to more than the wrestler's record is flagged and ignored until it is fixed.
Open Weights
If one team has a wrestler at a weight and the other team's spot is open, the Emulator counts it as a forfeit: 6 points. That is how a bump shows its true cost. If both sides are open, the weight is skipped.
Key Matchups
A bout is labeled a Key Matchup only when both of these are true:
- It is close in the model: a toss-up, or the favorite is under 60%.
- If the underdog won it by decision, the dual would flip, or the margin would shrink to 3 points or less.
At most four bouts get the label, ranked by how much each one swings the score. If no close bout could change the result, none are labeled. The math uses your coach-adjusted score, so it updates as you make calls.
Real Examples
| Matchup | Split | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 19 and 15 DP vs 22 and 12 | 53 / 47 | Decision, DP wrestler |
| 17 and 15 DP vs 6 and 11 | 78 / 22 | Pin |
| 32 and 10 DP vs 12 and 10 | 80 / 20 | Pin |
| 22 and 4 SP vs 15 and 8 DP | 70 / 30 | Tech fall |
| 20 and 5 vs 18 and 7 | 55 / 45 | Decision |
The first one was a real dual. The district placer won, which the Emulator called, and the bout ended in a pin late after his opponent stopped fighting it once the decision was out of reach. That is the kind of result no formula will catch every time, and why every bout has a Coach Assessment.
How It Was Tuned
The first version of the formula used win percentage on a straight line and added small flat bonuses for placements. Against real duals it was too conservative. It projected majors where everyone in the gym knew a pin was coming. Squaring the curve, weighting total wins, and switching placements to multipliers fixed most of that. In my own testing on a full dual, the projected team score landed within about 3 points of the real one.
What the Numbers Cannot See
- Style matchups, injuries, illness, and how a kid is cutting weight.
- Strength of schedule. A 20 and 5 record in a tough league is not the same as 20 and 5 in a weaker one.
- Recent form. A kid who started 2 and 6 and is 15 and 2 since looks worse on paper than he is.
That is your job as the coach. Use the Coach Assessment on each bout to set the winner and result you expect, and treat the projection as a starting point, not a verdict. The dashboard always keeps the original model score next to yours.